Update on Bonnie

Welcome news!  Bonnie looks to be far less of a threat to Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes than it was only 24 hours ago.  It is presently only a tropical depression after having passed across Florida.  Because of how fast it is traveling, and given its present trajectory, it will likely just barely return to tropical storm status before making landfall again.  It is now projected to make landfall at the Louisiana/Mississippi border.  We may get a little extra rain out of this storm system, and that's about it.  It remains to be seen how the oil remaining in the Gulf is affected by this storm.  Even though the storm is now projected to go north of the original source of the spill site, it really depends on where most of the oil is located as to whether the storm will help or hurt the situation. 

The big local story is that there will be a benefit concert on the Grand Isle tomorrow (Saturday, July 24), rain or sunshine, in lieu of the Annual Tarpon Rodeo (fishing event).  This alternate event will be huge for the beleaguered Grand Isle residents.  Too bad Lori and James couldn't be here for that.  They would have loved it.

My Bonnie lies over the ocean

My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea

I can tell by the path she's a takin'
She wants to come visit me

The good news...Tropical Storm Bonnie will not likely reach hurricane status.

The bad news...Bonnie will disrupt oil cleanup operations, and may inflict further ecological damage beyond that which has already occurred as a result of the Oil Spill, if it continues to follow its projected path.

Gov. Bobby Jindal has already declared a state of emergency in Louisiana in preparation for the storm.  He is urging everyone in Louisiana to visit www.GetAGamePlan.org ASAP to make a game plan for their family.

Deep Horizon Oil Spill following Hurricane Alex

Even though Hurricane Alex was over 750 miles away, it had a substantial impact on the weather, the wind, and the wave action in the Deep Horizon Oil Spill-affected area of the Gulf.  I pulled up a map of the oil spill on Intellicast around 4:00 p.m. this afternoon (see pic) and noticed that the spill has moved onto the beaches of all four affected states.  On the Louisiana side, the spill has moved beyond Grand Isle toward Cocodrie.  Workers are doing everything they can to prevent the spill from going into Lake Bourne between New Orleans and the Mississippi coastline, then Lake Pontchartrain, the very large lake north of New Orleans.  They are doing everything they can to minimize impact to the Barataria Estuary on the other side of New Orleans.  The challenge has been the wave action and the storm surge of over six feet that Alex brought...as far away as it is.  If we have a hurricane season like 2005 or 2008, heaven help us.

It's official...our house is for sale

...and so is everyone else's...

Grand Isle, Elmer's Island, and Fourchon Beaches all closed

In my previous post, the last point I made was that Louisiana had precious few beaches.  Now it appears that all of the road-accessible beaches in and around Grand Isle have been closed as of May 21, because of the effects of the oil spill.  What a blow to the economy in Grand Isle, whose residents are heavily dependent on the tourists who would normally flock into Grand Isle this time of year to enjoy the beaches and go fishing.  Here's local news coverage (video footage).  And here's the local newspaper coverage.  I copied an image of the three beaches from Google Earth.  Go to Google Earth and type in Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Note that Grand Isle really is a road-accessible island.  The bridge crossing over to Grand Isle is where alot of fishing is done.  Zoom in on the bridge.  On the left of the bridge, inside the V- or 7-shaped Elmer's Island (depending on your view) is a great place for kayaking.  Fourchon Beach is on the lower left of the image I took, and fronts one of the most important industrial ports in the United States, Port Fourchon.  For the few times I have been down in the area, I preferred Fourchon Beach over Grand Isle Beach.  It's sort of like comparing Waikiki Beach (Grand Isle), which is so-so as a beach, but a major tourist destination, to Kailua Beach (Fourchon Beach) close to where we lived on Oahu, which, in my mind was a better beach to go swimming and playing around in.  NOAA will shortly give their predictions about hurricane season this year, which officially begins nine days from now.  I can only imagine what a Hurricane like Rita (2005) or Ike (2008) would do.  Both hurricanes remained offshore below Terrebonne Parish as they headed toward Texas, pushing deep water all the way to the Intracoastal Waterway that intersects east and west Houma 30 miles inland.  I'm not sure how habitable coastal Louisiana would be for any life, human or otherwise, if a similar hurricane were to impact us.

Louisiana facts relevant to the oil spill

1. Energy. Louisiana has the greatest concentration of crude oil refineries, natural gas processing plants and petrochemical production facilities in the Western Hemisphere. Louisiana ranks 4th among the U.S. states in crude oil production, behind Texas, Alaska, and California, and is also one of the nation’s top natural gas producers.

2. Population. According to U.S. Census estimates in 2006, nearly 50% of the state’s population lives in Louisiana’s coastal parishes.

3. Seafood industry and commercial fishing. Louisiana produces 50% of the U.S. shrimp crop, 35% of the nation's blue claw crabs, and 40% of its oysters. Additionally, Louisiana commercial landings account for about 20% of the total catch of fish by weight in the lower 48 States.

4. Recreational fishing. Annual expenditures related to non-commercial fishing in Louisiana amount to $1.7 billion.

5. Waterborne commerce. Five of the top fifteen largest ports in the United States are located in Louisiana. In 2005, Louisiana's coastal wetlands provided storm protection for ports that carried nearly 500 million tons of waterborne commerce- accounting for 18% of all waterborne commerce in the United States.

6. Marine habitat. Ninety percent of all the marine species in the Gulf depend on coastal estuaries at some point in their lives, and most of these estuaries are in Louisiana.

7. Bird habitat. More than one-half of the species of birds in North America are resident in Louisiana or spend a portion of their migration there.

8. Wetlands. Because of its many bays and sounds, Louisiana has the longest coastline (15,000 miles) of any state and 41 percent of the nation's wetlands.

9. Wetland loss. Between 1990 and 2000, wetland loss was approximately 24 square miles per year, the rough equivalent one football field every 38 minutes. The projected loss over the next 50 years, even with current restoration efforts taken into account, is estimated to be 500 sq. mi. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita transformed 217 square miles of marsh to open water in coastal Louisiana.

10. Beaches. Louisiana is not a beach destination. Granted, there are a few road-accessible beaches, such as the one on Grand Isle about 1.5 hr from New Orleans, but beaches close to the mouth of the Mississippi are not pristine beaches by any stretch.

Oil spill approaching Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes

For those who live in Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes, there are eerie similarities between post-Hurricane Katrina events and what is now unfolding following the oil spill. In the case of Katrina, New Orleans and coastal areas further east took the brunt of the storm, while Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes were far less affected. However, a storm later in the same season, namely Hurricane Rita, caused caused massive flooding and economic impact in these parishes and further west.

In the case of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, it initially appeared that parishes west of the Mississippi River had the possibility of largely escaping its devastating effects. But now, the tide has definitely turned for the worse. The map above is the NOAA projection as to where the spill is as of today at 6:00 p.m. NOAA has projected out for 24, 48, and 72 hours beyond Saturday at 6:00 p.m. The forecast shows the potential for oil along the Southwest Pass, on the beaches of Port Fourchon, and the Timbalier Islands. As of yet, no oil has been observed on the beaches at Grand Isle. The State Department of Wildlife and Fisheries has extended its ban on recreational and commercial fishing in some offshore waters west of the Mississippi, which has fishermen in this area much more concerned than they may have initially been. Oyster beds west of the Mississippi have been closed as well. Presidents of both Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes have declared a state of emergency in response to the westward movement of the oil spill and the crisis that has been created by this mess.

Oil spill approaching shoreline of the gulf states

I noticed with interest that the off-shore oil rig disaster 40 miles beyond Louisiana's shoreline was the lead story on the NBC evening news this evening. This disaster, with the potential to have far reaching ecological and political consequences, has a lot of people down here nervously watching to see how it will play out over the next few days as the oil spill area spreads. The aftermath of the fiery explosion on an off-shore oil rig that resulted in several deaths, has the potential to severely impact the already fragile wetland region of Louisiana and the coastal regions of several gulf states, affecting not only wildlife, but seafood, tourism, and other industries that our economy depends on. Here is the report on this disaster from our local paper. The report contains a video about midway into the article as well, that includes a clip from Motivatit Seafoods owner Mike Voisin, a fellow Latter-day Saint who I spent some time on Sunday with.

Here is a Facebook comment from Richard Stancliffe, a member of our New Orleans Stake Presidency who works for the oil industry, and who is also an avid bird watcher, "The disaster of the Transocean Deepwater Horizon rig will have political and environmental repercussions that will impact the industry for years to come. Forget about all the OCS acreage Obama opened up last week...the window of that opportunity just closed."