Government shutdown looming

It is looking more and more likely that there will be a Federal Government shutdown early next month, meaning that non-essential government employees, myself included, will be instructed to not show up at work.  The Federal Government is currently funded through a continuing resolution that expires March 4. If Congress fails to either approve the longer-term spending bill or pass another stopgap by the expiration date, most government operations will cease until more funding is approved.  In 1995, Republicans in Congress reached an impasse with President Clinton over elements of the fiscal year 1996 budget which resulted in a government shutdown in November that year.  Threatening a government shutdown is a risky game for Republicans to play.  In 1995, public opinion largely sided with Clinton.  You can be sure that Obama is well aware of that fact.

Here are a couple of articles that popped up on the shutdown: "Government Shutdown: What's at stake" by CNN; Battle over Budget Cuts Raises Specter of Federal Government Shutdown by Fox News.

Here are possible 2012 presidential candidates who favor a shutdown.  Sarah Palin: "A shutdown would force President Barack Obama to work with Republicans."    Tim Pawlenty: "In Minnesota we survived it OK. You don't want to be reckless or irresponsible about it, but there's going to have to be some lines in the sand."  Ron Paul: "I don't think it would hurt one bit."   Newt Gingrich: hearkening back to the 1995 shutdown, ""Everybody in Washington thinks that was a big mistake. They're exactly wrong."

Here are those who do not favor a shutdown.  Mike Huckabee: "I think it is not a good thing.  It means the disruption of a lot of things. It just creates a nightmare. The ideal solution is for people to act like adults...do the jobs they were sent to do."   Michelle Bachmann: among Tea Party politicians, a minority opinion, "That's not going to happen because that won't serve anyone's interest."  Haley Barbour: stated that Republicans should learn the lessons of 1995.  Mitt Romney: could not find any statement where Mitt was quoted on the subject, but assume that he would not favor a government shutdown.

Shortest day of the year packed with happenings

For being the shortest day of the year (Winter Solstice) and reportedly the darkest in over 300 years (Lunar Eclipse on the shortest day), this was quite an eventful day.  So what all happened?  In the course of 24 hours, I got to see the lunar eclipse.  I got to see UConn Women's Basketball team win their 89th game in a row, eclipsing the long-standing men's basketball record held by John Wooden's UCLA team.  I got to see the 2010 U.S. census results for the first time.  I got to see the long-awaited new road in Houma connecting Hwy 311 to the strip on MLK Blvd, where we do most of our shopping, finally open today, cutting almost in half the time it will take us to make the trip to the strip.  And, to top things off, I got the kayak out, brushed off the cobwebs, and took a 4-mile round trip journey on Bayou Black.  The background scenery and wildlife on these kayak trips never disappoints, which makes me wonder why I don't go more often.

Food insecurity in the U.S.A.

The news that I watched this evening carried a news story from Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (my big boss) on food security in the U.S. A recently released USDA report estimates that nearly 50 million Americans had difficulty getting enough to eat in 2008. This represents one in seven households, a sharp increase from one in ten food-insecure households estimated just one year earlier, in 2007. Secretary Tom Vilsack described this report as an alarming wake-up call, and a direct result of the effects of the recession we are going through, with widespread unemployment and rising poverty levels. In 2008, nearly 17 million children, or 22.5 percent, lived in households in which food at times was scarce -- 4 million children more than the year before. And the number of youngsters that are outright hungry multiple times during the year, rose from nearly 700,000 to almost 1.1 million. This was last year. Who knows what the statistics will be for this year. While we are preparing for that big Thanksgiving dinner, perhaps we need to be reminded that a staggering percentage of the world's population goes chronically hungry, and that even here in the U.S., many households are barely getting by. As much as we may feel that we struggle to get by, we really are better off than the vast majority of the world's population, and Thanksgiving is a good time to be grateful for what we do have.

Former U.S. Congressman Bill Orton killed in an accident

I was surprised to see that Sunday's lead story in the Deseret News was about the untimely death of former Congressman Bill Orton. Bill was a political maverick who served three terms as a Democrat in one of Utah's most conservative districts. The 60-year-old died in an all-terrain vehicle accident Saturday afternoon at the Little Sahara Sand Dunes in Juab County southwest of Provo, Utah. His past political opponents, primarily former Congressman Chris Cannon and former Governor Mike Leavitt, paid generous tributes to Orton for his integrity and his unwavering adherance to the principles he believed in. In other words, he wasn't the typical political animal that stuck his finger in the air to see which way the political winds were blowing before he acted or voted on an issue. To read the readers' comments following the Deseret News article, it is obvious that Orton was a good and decent human being. During the time we lived in Utah between 1993 and 2000, we had some exposure to Bill Orton during election campaigns. I just remember being very impressed by him, and appalled by Cannon's underhanded campaign tactics. Some of this comes out in the article. Orton was an unabashed supporter of Obama. He married and started a family late in life, and has left two sons who are now without a father during a crucial part of their lives. The picture above was taken in 2000. Hopefully, they will have a strong support system surrounding them that will help carry them through. I wish his wife and children well.

An Historic Inauguration

Okay, now I feel comfortable admitting it. I actually did vote for Barack Obama. And, of course, I was excited to see the events of the day unfold. This inauguration truly was an historic event in so many ways. We are going to need a president that has the intelligence, savvy, and perseverance of some of its former giants, the likes of Lincoln and FDR, to get us through the mess we are in right now. Whether Barack lives up to this, remains to be seen. I can only hope that Barack lives up to my expectations of him.

I have a rather strange voting history, especially when I have always considered myself to be a Republican. For example, I can truthfully say that I never voted for Tricky Dick or “W.” But then again, I never voted for Slick Willy either. In fact, the last presidents I actually voted for were George HW Bush and his predecessor, Ronald Reagan, so it has been a while.

Why did I vote for Barack? I wanted to see a change in the direction our country seemed to be headed. My vote also represents somewhat of a push-back against the persistent barrage of what I thought were unfair labels being pinned on him…anti-American…Muslim in sheep’s clothing…born in Africa or wherever…etc. I spent time in Indonesia back in the ‘80’s, so I felt like I could relate to the discussion about his youthful years in Indonesia. Indonesia was a progressive Muslim nation yearning to be more Western during the time he was there…though sadly it has reverted to a much more hard line anti-American stance in the post-Bush years. Also, a part of me is still in Hawaii, where along with Barack, our children grew up as well. The Hawaiian culture has an amazingly strong community sense, which I felt helped shape him and the career direction he took that led him to where he is now, and which will continue to serve him well. There were other considerations I took into account, including his bio-friendly energy plan versus McCains plan.

Finally, I freely admit that I felt a little bit like a traitor to not vote for the giant of a man that John McCain is. How could I not have voted for a former POW who would have the absolute support and trust of the military who protect this nation from its enemies? I was never more proud of McCain than during his concession speech, when in the midst of boos, he congratulated Obama and pledged “to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face” as a nation. Hopefully, Barack will show the same level of courage when this country needs him to.

Far and away, the largest number of people attended this inauguration than any previous inauguration. America needed an event as historical as this one was, one that would give all of its citizens a sense of ownership in its future. As McCain so eloquently stated, “Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.” We have indeed come a long way since MLK was assassinated. But we are also on a dangerous path. Hopefully, we can rally together, and make the needed changes that will assure a strong future for our country.

Remarks by Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer about impending transition

At the 2008 Annual Meeting and Convention of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, our Secretary of Agriculture, Ed Schafer, spoke about the impending transition following the general election. It is obvious from his remarks that there is an air of excitement in Washington D.C. that is especially poignant this time around. Apparently, from Schafer's remarks, the transition team from the Obama camp is already working closely with the present USDA administration as preparations are being made to install a new Secretary of Agriculture. Ed Schafer will shortly be returning to North Dakota, where he hails from. I quite enjoyed reading the transcript of his remarks, because he gave some Washington insights I wouldn't have otherwise been aware of.

Anh 'Joseph' Cao, first Vietnamese-American to U.S. Congress

Another political surprise happened in Louisiana this past Saturday. Joseph Cao had an upset victory over William Jefferson. Jefferson has a 16-count federal indictment facing him, including money laundering, and I guess the folks who he represents, got a little skittish. Here is the earlier editorial endorsement for Cao from New Orleans Times-Picayune. Here is the aftermath story. There are a lot of Vietnamese in this area. They make great fishermen, which should be no surprise to anyone, considering their roots.

While we lived in Hawaii, we took in three Vietnamese refugees for about six weeks, and a little later took in two more, one of whom had malaria. They didn't know a lick of English when we took them in. We maintained contact with the earlier three for several years afterward until they moved to the mainland, and had them over for Thanksgiving each year. It was a good experience for our children. They enjoyed being around our children, and looked upon us as their second family.

Kevin Voisin wins seat on Terrebonne Parish Council

Kevin Voisin, a decided underdog in a post-November election runoff between the top two candidates for City Councilman in Terrebonne Parish District 6, actually pulled off a win yesterday with the narrowest of margins, 862 vs. 846 votes. In the District 6 primary held Nov. 4, Steve Robichaux tallied more than 41 percent of the vote, compared to 32 percent for Voisin. A third candidate, Democrat Al Badeaux, finished with 26 percent. Steve blamed voter apathy for the loss, and the probable assumption by his friends that he "had it in the bag."

We were excited for Kevin and his family. We know Kevin through our church, and wish him the very best in his new role. If there is any one extended family that epitomizes the LDS Church in Houma, it would have to be the Voisin family. I served as a bishopric counselor with Kevin's father, Mike Voisin, a former Bishop of Thibodaux Ward and convert to the church. Kevin was an LDS missionary in France. He was a history major at BYU, and opted to become part of the family business by returning to Houma with his wife, Emily, following college. They now have three children. The Voisin family has been in the oyster business for seven generations. Kevin and Emily played a key role in organizing the Mormon Helping Hands volunteer event that brought over 1,400 volunteers into Terrebonne Parish to assist in the cleanup following Hurricane Gustav.

Obama pledges support of domestic sugar

Just weeks before the November election, President-elect Barack Obama sent the U.S. sugar industry a letter pledging his support of a vibrant domestic sugar sector. The letter focused on three issues of particular importance to sugar producers: The new Farm Bill, renewable energy, and international trade. As I stated in an earlier blog, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out, once President-elect Obama becomes President Obama. Sugarbeet and sugarcane growers have to be pleased that Obama has at least pledged his support, whether they voted for him or not. Leading up to the election, McCain made it abundantly clear that they weren't going to get his support. Speaking of support, Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer reported that "crop supports have fallen from $11 billion to $810 million in three years." That's a pretty remarkable drop. Sharply increased commodity values for most crops must have had more than a little to do this reduction.

Obama-Biden Energy Plan for America

I will be following with interest how steadfast the Obama-Biden ticket holds to the energy plan they have outlined on their “New Energy for America” webpage once in office, particularly as it relates to support for ethanol. Obama and McCain have differed sharply on the ethanol issue, an issue that has become increasingly controversial in recent months. Obama represents a corn-growing ethanol-producing state, Illinois, and to this point, supports the continuation of ethanol subsidies. He sees the need to move in the direction of cellulosic ethanol (2nd generation biofuel) that has been touted as being more sustainable, more environmentally friendly, and less controversial than corn (food vs. fuel). McCain, on the other hand, represents a desert state, Arizona, and has been critical of agricultural subsidies generally, and ethanol subsidies in particular. During his presidential campaign, when asked about cutting excessive government spending, ethanol subsidies were right at the top of his short list.

The sustainability of cellulosic ethanol is controversial as well, as shown in the following blogsites, Treehugger and R-Squared Energy Blog (Nov 9). When it comes to liquid fuels, do we want to cut research dedicated toward improving the sustainability of renewable resources, such as second-generation biofuels, until non-renewable resources (oil and natural gas) are nearly depleted, or do we continue to support this research irrespective of gas price and public mood swings with the expectation that this research will pay off down the road when non-renewable resources become scarce.

Restoring Louisiana's vanishing coastline

Last night, I had the opportunity to view a compelling documentary entitled "Harvest to Restore America's Coastal Heartland." This documentary eloquently described how important the coastal region of Louisiana is to the entire nation, then introduced the concept of "pipeline sediment delivery" as a means of saving our coastline, wetlands, livelihood and lifestyle in this region. Quoting from the website, "...pipeline sediment delivery holds the promise of expeditiously recreating the natural system of barrier islands, marshes, and ridgelands that provide the only practical long term hurricane protection both to America’s energy hub and to the port and city of New Orleans." The documentary showed how pipeline sediment delivery works, how it’s being used in other countries around the world such as in Dubai. The documentary is well worth watching, and shows what can be done if we put our minds to it. Governor Bobby Jindal just returned from Washington, where he met with the Louisiana congressional delegation and, among other things, discussed the need to move ahead as quickly as possible on projects that will help to save our vanishing coastline.

Biofuel Industry Development Initiative signed into law in Louisiana

Yesterday, Governor Bobby Jindal signed into law the Advanced Biofuel Industry Development Initiative, the most comprehensive and far-reaching state legislation in the nation enacted to develop a statewide advanced biofuel industry. Louisiana is the first state to enact alternative transportation fuel legislation that includes a variable blending pump pilot program and a hydrous ethanol pilot program.

The legislature found that the proper development of an advanced biofuel industry in Louisiana requires implementation of the following comprehensive “field-to-pump” strategy developed by Renergie, Inc.:

(1) Feedstock Other Than Corn
(a) derived solely from Louisiana harvested crops;
(b) capable of an annual yield of at least 600 gallons of ethanol per acre;
(c) requiring no more than one-half of the water required to grow corn;
(d) tolerant to high temperature and waterlogging;
(e) resistant to drought and saline-alkaline soils;
(f) capable of being grown in marginal soils, ranging from heavy clay to light sand;
(g) requiring no more than one-third of the nitrogen required to grow corn, thereby reducing the risk of
contamination of the waters of the state; and
(h) requiring no more than one-half of the energy necessary to convert corn into ethanol.

The legislature calls for a decentralized network of small biofuel manufacturing facilities each capable of producing 5 - 15 million gallons of biofuel per year. Variable blending pumps, directly installed and operated at local gas stations must offer the consumer a less expensive substitute for unleaded gasoline in the form of E10, E20, E30 and E85.

It is not entirely clear what crop this legislature was tailored for. Some believe it was tailored for sweet sorghum, considering that Renergie, Inc. was involved in developing the language. Sugarcane certainly should meet most if not all of the criteria listed above. Both are more energy efficient than corn, and neither has the same food-vs-fuel stigma that corn has.

Flex-fuel vehicles...what say you?

As a matter of course, at 7:00 pm, I find myself switching between O'Reilly's Factor (Fox News) and Olbermann's Countdown (MSNBC). While I'm not in full agreement with the positions of either of these polar opposites, occasionally I get sucked in to issues I have some passion for. Such has been the case with Bill O'Reilly over the past four days, with his Talking Points focusing on our need to reduce our dependence on OPEC Oil, controlled by Mideastern Oil Barons. I agree with him that these people who really don't like us very much, yet they are benefiting enormously from our consumption of their oil at current oil prices. Bill's answer in part is to mandate flex-fuel vehicles, and follow the lead of Brazil in becoming more oil independent through greater usage of home grown ethanol. Bill has been to Brazil several times and I am very happy that he aggressively challenges those who have jumped on the latest bandwagon to pooh pooh ethanol for various reasons.

From my perspective, ethanol has gotten a bad rap, because our ethanol is derived from corn, which is a lot harder to justify socially and energetically than ethanol from crops like sugarcane that have a much better energy balance, and less impact on world food supply.

Could we produce ethanol profitably from sugarcane in the U.S. at present oil prices? Right now, the sugarcane farmer is barely breaking even at the 20 cents a pound he is getting for the sugar he is producing. So, the simple answer would seem to be that if the farmer were getting more than 20 cents a pound for sugar converted to ethanol, and if the infrastructure were already in place, he would be better off producing ethanol. It takes roughly 12 lbs of sugar to produce one gallon of ethanol, and on an equivalent volume basis, ethanol will only take you about 70% as far down the road as gasoline. Therefore 12 lbs sugar x 20 cents/lb = $2.40/gallon or $3.40/gas-equivalent gallon. How much cheaper it would be to produce ethanol directly from sugarcane juice than from fully processed raw sugar? The Brazilians should be able to answer this question. Apparently, they can produce ethanol at around 85 cents/gallon and I believe that they sell sugar at the world market price which is currently around 10 cents/lb. Could molasses and lower strikes of sugar be routed toward ethanol production, while only the highest strike of sugar (A-strike) be used toward the production of traditional sugar products? Is Brazil's claimed 8:1 energy output:input ratio valid? How much different is our ratio?

New Farm Bill and the U.S. Sugar Industry

Today, congress voted on the new farm bill. The senate may vote on it as early as tomorrow. The legislative branch is overwhelmingly in favor of the farm bill as it stands. By contrast, the executive branch, led by our President, and of which the USDA is a part, is against it. The USDA website displays the arguments against the bill. The expectation is that the President will veto the bill. The further expectation is that both the house and the senate have the votes to override his veto. We shall see.

Where does the sugar industry, represented by both cane and beet interests, fall in all of this? Their position can be found in various websites, such as the American Sugar Alliance, but can be summed up by stating that the provisions in the farm bill related to sugar are supported by the sugar industry. One key element in the bill is what is referred to as "an ethanol provision." How this provision is supposed to work, was discussing in the New York Times back in October 2007. If too much foreign sugar is imported, it essentially obligates the government to buy surplus domestic sugar, and sell it at a discount to ethanol producers to blend with corn fermentables toward the production of ethanol. This, in turn, would prevent the undesired stockpiling of domestic sugar.